Total Market Capitalization or Market Share of the revenue, which one is the true price of an auto/tech company?

Looking to understand the correlation between market capitalization of different auto companies and market share of the revenue generated by them

Market capitalization, also known as market cap, is a measure of a company's size and is calculated by multiplying the current market price of its stock by the total number of shares outstanding. Market share is the percentage of total sales in a particular market that is held by a particular company or product.

There is typically a positive correlation between market capitalization and market share. Companies with high market capitalization are typically larger and more established, and they tend to have a larger market share as well. This is because they have a greater ability to invest in marketing and other efforts to increase their market share, as well as a larger customer base and brand recognition that can contribute to their market share.

However, it is important to note that there are other factors that can influence a company's market share and market capitalization, such as the overall size and growth of the market, the company's financial performance, and the competitive landscape. A company with a large market capitalization may not necessarily have a large market share, and vice versa.

If we were to test this hypothesis on the auto sales market, we notice a huge discrepancy between the value ascribed to TSLA 0.00%↑ vs the current market share for it:

The shorthand way to talk about Tesla is to call it an electric car company. But that's a massive oversimplification. It's a technology company. It's also an iconic, revolutionary brand specializing in making the customer and user experience sublimely frictionless. Although, we should acknowledge that the Tesla Bears are up +103.52% since the Direxion ETF started tracking them

Time to bring those red short shorts back?

Looking ahead to 2023, we can use a valuable ratio (Surprise: It’s not P/E!)

NTM market cap, or next twelve months market capitalization, is a measure of the market value of a company based on the expected financial performance over the next 12 months. It is calculated by multiplying the current market price of the company's stock by the number of outstanding shares, and adjusting for any expected changes in the company's financial performance over the next 12 months. Free cash flow is a measure of a company's financial performance that represents the amount of cash that is available to the company after it has paid for all of its operating expenses and made any necessary capital expenditures. It is calculated by subtracting capital expenditures from the company's net income, and is an important indicator of a company's financial health and ability to generate cash. NTM market cap to free cash flow is a financial ratio that is used to evaluate the relative value of a company's stock. It is calculated by dividing the NTM market cap by the company's free cash flow over the next 12 months.

A high ratio may indicate that the company's stock is overvalued, while a low ratio may indicate that it is undervalued. This ratio can be useful for investors as it provides a way to compare the valuation of different companies, but it is important to consider other factors as well when making investment decisions.

2021 Market Share, Total Enterprise Value & the valuation ratios of key automobile manufacturer are below:

We are in the roaring twenties, and preference for electric vehicles is stronger for Gen Z & Millennial demographic.

Cybertruck could soon move into production as 66 Kuka production line robots arrived in Houston on the Dec 18th. This can be another tailwind for the stock which has seen massive selling this year (including Elon selling to buy Twitter).

If we were to share price targets for TSLA 0.00%↑ using cashflow valuation model ratios for the 12 similar companies:

Bull Case: $255
Assumption: Tesla will continue to gain market share of electric car sales

Bear Case: $85
Assumption: JPow continues to remain hawkish, Elon continues to spend more time on Twitter

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